Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Is history repeating itself?



PIIGS you say? We don't need wars we have the world stock markets to kill people. What happened? Greece was getting a bailout from the European union and suddenly one of the sheeple got nervous and started pulling credit. Same thing happened in 1929 only on a smaller scale. It happened with people pulling their money out of banks. This time whole countries are doing it. Way to go Bushco! Remember none of the issues that got us into this mess were seriously addressed after our own melt down. Bush merely shoveled a bunch of money at the problem and left it for Obama to try and figure out. The Wall Street game has been going on for two years now. It was "place your bets gentlemen" the taxpayer has just fronted us our next wager. And nothing changed. The same crappy naked shorts, derivatives and toxic loans were being bought and sold after a little repackaging I'm sure. Slap some lipstick on this pig and see who'll fall for it this time around. And I guess they did. Leveraged to the hilt once again hoping that this time around they wouldn't be left holding the bag when the music stopped.

This may be different this time around. I could be wrong but I never really saw any major changes to the way business was being done the last two years other than it's been nearly impossible for small business to get loans to keep operating. So the advice from those that have more technical expertise than me say to get out now while the getting is good. I was smart enough or lucky enough to see what's happening a bit over two years ago. Here's how. You ever have a gut feeling that something is too good to be true? That's the general feel I got back in 06 and 07 when people were flipping houses faster than burgers at McDonalds. I kept hearing how people were going to make a ton of money on the house they just bought. Once they vacuumed and cleaned the windows it would be worth another $25 grand. That was the tip off for me. Never in my life did I witness such a gold rush in the housing market. When I heard even pizza delivery guys were getting into the mortgage business I knew the end was near.
A friendly piece of advice. Don't buy gold. You can't eat gold when everything's hit bottom.

Crash alert!

8 comments:

Randal Graves said...

Italy's crown prince has been looking a bit shifty, I'm thinking maybe the CIA wants to make further inquiries.

Fine, don't buy gold. Make Baby Beck cry.

Holte Ender said...

I remember reading a story about Joe Kennedy just before the crash of 1929, he was having his shoes shined on Wall Street and the kid cleaning them starting talking about stocks and offered to sell him tips on emerging stocks. Apparently Kennedy, that very day, pulled everything he had out of the stock market saying when the shoe shine kids are involved in stock sales, time to get out.

The Blog Fodder said...

Don't say such things. I just wrote a couple of business plans, quoting banks as saying that everything is going to be OK. 3.3% growth and all that nonsense. The caveat at the bottom was IF the Eurozone debt crisis didn't spiral out of control.

Demeur said...

Ah yes the best laid plans of men and mice Fodder.

Tim said...

Don't buy gold, Spam buy spam, it last forever. Did I mention Plastic...

BBC said...

Business loan? Crap, have you looked into a home lone lately? They want to be god over you, and make damn good money doing it. I suppose a business loan would be much the same way these days.

I started my business on a shoe string with my own money and a small loan from an uncle. A few years later when I wanted a brake drum and rotor lathe I went to the bank for some of the money and they asked me for a business plan.

Hell, I was in no fucking where Utah a hundred miles out of Salt Lake City, what in the hell did they think my business plan would be? But they insisted on one, as I recall it went something like.....

"Buy parts, sell them, buy more parts and sell them. Pay bills on time and keep a close handle on accounts receivable.

It's not like I was planning on opening a chain of frigging parts houses in the area, I just wanted to get by and was doing okay at it.

They gave me the loan but I bet that today that they would start pitching a lot of shit on me and I would tell them to fuck off and find another way to get the money.

These days I have a low interest rate credit card in my wallet that would be good enough to start any business I would want to start these days without screwing with a bank loan officer.

Not that there isn't a few of them that I wouldn't mind screwing. :-)

BBC said...

You can't eat gold when everything's hit bottom.

Maybe not but women love it so you can trade it for pussy.

Tom Harper said...

If it gets any worse, we might return to those same weather forecasts from 1929: "30% chance of stockbrokers today."