Sunday, July 13, 2008

The economy

With fuel prices sucking the life blood out of this country the subprime and adjustables squeezing the remaining embers of life from our economy this is easily the worst time in American history. I've never claimed to be an expert on macroeconomics but it doesn't take a phd to figure out what's happening. If you tune into the financial networks with any regularity ( I check them about once a day) you will continue to see a parade of economic cheerleaders that would make any high school proud. No matter what the news whether it be a bank failure or unrest in a foreign country affecting the costs of oil the talking heads always put a positive spin on things. I always try to look at the fundamentals for our future situation. Sorry to report the future does not look good. I think I've said it a few times before but I'll say it again "you ain't seen nothing yet". Now before you think I didn't do my homework on this I can tell you I've been on this for a couple of years now preparing my own bunker for the economic air raid that has only started.

Let's take a look at the facts:

Fuel prices are double what they were just a few years ago.
We've shipped off hundreds of billions of dollars to Iraq. Estimates put it at 3 trillion when it's all said and done.
Our federal debt is now around 9 trillion.
With oil so high the costs of everything that (if they haven't already) are going up.
Speculators have made a bad situation worse by dumping money into energy and commodities.
Companies faced with rising energy and material costs and lower demand are laying off.
Incomes are flat to falling.
Consumer confidence is at an all time low.
The subprime mess. The entire credit situation is estimated to be around 5 trillion.
People are using their credit cards to pay mortgages and make ends meet.
People are paying their credit cards late.
Bankruptcies are at an all time high.
Home prices are falling squeezing equity credit.
The reporting figures have been changed to exclude things like energy, housing and food. Hmm what does that leave?

Now a peek into the future:
Fuel prices going up even more. $5 a gal. may be cheap next year.
A few more natural disasters and our national debt will go up more.
Costs of electricity will go up by 20 to 30%. (takes a while to get okay for rate hikes)
Cost for water and sewer will go up at least 15%
Garbage rates will go up.
Prices of food will continue go up.
More lay offs ( the fireings will continue until the economy improves)
Hospitals faced with higher costs will lay off and close branches (saw that happen already)
At least one U.S. car maker will go under.
Several airlines will go out of business.
Property taxes are already going up and will continue.
Smaller towns will go bankrupt and unincorporate.

Hey but don't believe me what do I know?

If you want the info from the smexperts pop over here and take a look.

Bad times ahead


GJG said...

What goes around, comes around---everything you said is pretty much true---but its what you didn't say that needs to be added to get a more exact picture. Example:---house prices have fallen---which means people here to fore unable afford to buy a house now can. People out of work, usually find another job and go back to work. Its generally believed by most economists that an unemployment rant under 7% is not sustainable. Market pricing invariably determines what brands of things survive. If Gasoline becomes to expensive---consumers will stop using to much of it.and more importantly, other means of energy creation become economically viable--(like hydrogen fuel cell developement maybe?) etc. Yes the times are challenging and yes its rough----but the sun will come out tomorrow---either that or we all are gonna die.

NorthCountryLiberal said...

Hey, Demeur, They won't believe me either.

Better safe than sorry:

Demeur said...

Unfortunately Gary that's exactly what happened in the depression of the 30s, over 8 million people did die because of the economic situation. Also the real unemployment rate is at 9.9% and people aren't finding other jobs many of which have been eliminated permenantly. Good luck finding a bank loan for a mortgage. Banks are dumping their mortgage departments altogether.

Wayne said...

Heh, well said. However, you didn't mention one other thing:

The population rate.

A graph depicting our population increases is pointing directly northward. We will run out of food before anything else in my opinion.

However like you, what do I know?

Scary shit Maynerd....scary indeed.